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[整理] 交易系统:国外论坛常年第一SonicR个人翻译完毕,第三部分

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发表于 2017-10-22 18:23 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
PVSRA Tutorial 使用说明书

The PVSRA project is by no means complete. This is an "in-work" project to identify and clarify the method of analysis. The analysis is aPrice,Volume,S&RAnalysis (hence the acronym PVSRA). PVSRA uses absolutely no other indicators because all other indicators are nothing more than derivatives of price. They are all lagging indicators that frequently point you in the wrong direction. They waste computer resources and serve only to inhibit your success that can only be achieved by properly analyzing the three most important datum in trading, and then setting up your strategy to trade based on that analysis, and that analysis
alone!

PVSRA不是一个完成的项目,它是一个还在探索和发展分析方法的项目。这种分析包括价格、成交量、支撑阻力位置分析。PVSRA完全不需要其他的指标因为其他指标都是对价格的衍生分析。这些指标是滞后的并且经常告诉你错误的方向。他们浪费电脑的资源并阻止你交易成功,交易成功只需要对是三个重要的数据进行分析,并制定在这些分析之上的交易策略,这些分析可以独立不需要其他指标来完成。

The method of analysis is to look for notable volume changes, then to look at the general price action (PA) and the individual price bars within that PA before during and after notable volume changes, and finally to look to see where all this PA is taking place relative to importantS&R levels. That is it in a nutshell, but there are important specifics involved.The area of important specifics involved include what is meant by "notable volume changes", what are we looking for in the general PA, what are we looking for in the way of individual candle configurations within that PA, and what are we looking for when we bring the S&R factor into all of this? Finding out the best answers to these questions is what this "in-work" PVSRA project is all about; what works and what does not work.In the following text I am going to discuss some specifics, some considerations being tried. In time, some may be discarded as unreliable and some as yet unidentified specifics may come to light through discoveries to be made by traders that have embraced this project and are trading based on PVSRA.

分析的方法是找到显著的成交量改变,然后看价格整体的趋势和趋势中单独的K线在成交量改变的过程中和过程后,并最后看趋势在支撑阻力位的表现。说起来简单一句话,但是有复杂重要的细节。复杂的细节包括“显著的成交量改变”指的是什么,我们在总体趋势中看什么,在单独的K线上看什么,并且我们在支撑阻力位看什么。这些问题的最佳答案是PVSRA项目关注的,哪些是有效的,哪些是无效的。在下面的文字我会讨论一些细节,一些已经验证过的思考,迟早,一些会因为无效而被舍弃,而一些现在还不能认识的细节会由于使用这种方法的交易者的探索发现而被大家掌握。


Volume Specifics
By "notable" volume changes we mean relative volume changes that stand out. These do not have to result in tall volume bars, just taller volume bars compared to within a short time before they occur. The color coded volume histogram helps to identify such notable changes, regardless of the actual height of the bars, which is why short bars can appear as color coded bars. Certainly, when very tall color coded volume bars appear, even among other tall volume bars, this is not only a notable change in relative volume, it has the possible added indication of being "stopping" volume. This of course must be confirmed by studying the candle associated with such a volume bar. Relative to important S&R, where the end of the candle strikes can be a form of confirmation. More will be said on this in the section on S&R below.


“显著的”成交量改变我们指的是成交量相对的突出出来,这些不需要是高的成交量条,只要是短时间内相比之前高出的成交量条。有颜色的成交量条帮助我们识别出这些显著改变的成交量,无需管实际的条的高度,这也是为什么出现有颜色的短条。当然,当非常高的颜色条出现,甚至在一堆高的成交量条中,将不再只是代表成交量的显著改变,也可能加上一个信号是“趋势停止”。这时候当然需要看当时的K线情况来确认,这根K线的底部触及的位置会形成一个重要的支撑阻力位,更多的细节将在后面支撑阻力部分讲到。


Price and PA Specifics
When a notable volume event occurs what does the specific candle look like and what has PA been doing in general? Here are some considerations. If the specific candle strikes into lows, or islow, or is coming up off of lows in PA that is generally declining, this is an indication lower prices are favored more than higher prices, which implies bulls are building long positions. If the specific candle strikes up into highs, or is high, or is coming down off of highs in PA that is generally rising, this is an indication higher prices are favored more than lower prices, which implies bears are building short positions. Sometimes the general drift of PA is neither declining nor inclining, but doingboth or doing neither. At such times you might still be able to see if high or low prices seem to be favored. However, there are times when this aspect of PVSRA does not yield clear results. It is not a failing of PVSRA. It is the strength of PVSRA! At such times PVSRA is telling you there is no clear "signal" and no trade entry should be under consideration by you!


当一个显著的成交量条出现时,对应的K线和整体趋势是什么样的?这里有一些发现。如果对应的K线向下延伸,或在较低的位置,或正在从整体向下趋势中较低的位置向上爬升,这说明较低的价格要比较高的价格受欢迎,说明MM在建立多头头寸。如果对应的蜡烛在向上延伸,或在较高的位置,或正在整体爬升的趋势中向下降,这说明较高的价格比较低的价格受欢迎,说明MM在建立空头头寸。有时对应的整体趋势既不是上升也不是下降,而是即上升又下降或者都不是,在这时你可能还能看出高的价格和低的价格哪个更收欢迎,然而,这时PVSRA的结果不见得是清晰的,这不是PVSRA的失败,而是它的力量!在这时PVSRA告诉你,此时没有清晰的入场点并且你在思考后不应该交易。

S&R Specifics
Currently, there are two S&R considerations: discrete S&R levels and where has price come from. The discrete S&R levels are whole, half and quarter numbers, in that order of priortiy.
Bears like to move price above these levels to close longs/build shorts. Bulls like to move price below these levels to close shorts/build longs. So, if price as been moved above/below any of these levels and notable volume changes then occur, this is an indication bears/bulls reign. Where price has come from is also a consideration because you will see, using the Levels on your SonicR template and viewing H1 charts, that inter-day swings tend to be birthed in the area of these Levels, and tend to die in the area of these Levels. The way to use this information is to see the progress of PA from the birth of the current swing. Inter-day swings tend to be 100+, 150+, 200+, 250+, etc. pips in length. If aswing has just started, the odds are for more progress. If a swing is already mature, the odds increase for price to reverse. Unfortunately, we cannot know how far a swing might progress. Nevertheless, this sometimes does add confirmation to what other aspects of PVSRA are indicating. And it sometimes boldly refutes what other aspects of PVSRA are indicating. For this latter situation, suppose the price and volume specifics are indicating the MMs are bulls, with notable volumes occurringat prices at lows, and maybe even in the very short term prices are starting to drift low. What would you conclude if your S&R part of the PVSRA showed price had already performed a 250+ pips inter-day swing upwards? Could the MMs be putting on "bullish looking PA" as part of a last effort to coax longs into the market to give the bear MMs liquidity for their final round of short building before they start their run for profits downwards? You see, it is not just price and volume that can be analyzed. S&R must be a part of the analysis for the analysis to yield reliable indications!


最近,有2个关于支撑阻力的发现:分散的支撑阻力位和价格运动是从哪开始的。分散的支撑阻力位是指整数、半数、1/4报价位置,按照数字顺序。
空头MM喜欢把价格运动到这些支持阻力位以上来关闭多头或建立空头,多头MM喜欢把价格运动到这些位置以下来关闭空头或建立多头。因此,如果价格被运动到这些位置的上下并且显著的成交量条出现,这说明多头还是空头在占主导。所谓价格运动是从哪里开始的是指当你用SONIC模板看H1图表时,你会发现日内的波动倾向于从这些整数位开始,并倾向在这些位置结束。这些信息的用法是看目前的趋势的发展走向,日内行情一般在100+, 150+, 200+, 250+点等等,如果一段行情刚刚开始,那么继续发展的可能性很大,如果一个行情已经走了很久,那么逆转的可能性会增大。不幸的是,我们不能知道一段行情能走多远,尽管如此,这个发现可以判断其他PVSAR指标的确定性。假设价格和成交量显示MM在做多,有显著的成交量信号出现在价格在低点的时候,并且甚至是在很短的时间内价格开始急剧下降,你将如何决策如果此时SR部分显示整体向上的趋势已经延续了250多点的日内波动?MM可能在拉升“牛市趋势”来最后努力吸引散户进场做多提供他们自己下一步下降趋势所需要的订单。你看,这不是单靠价格和成交量能分析出来的,结合支撑阻力位置才能更可靠的分析!


Conclusions 结论
As I have repeated over and over again, PVSRA can determine if MMs are bulls or bears, but we cannot ever know how far they might move price as they build their positions (by screwing other traders into giving them the liquidity they need to build). Therefore we can never know when the MM will start their run for profits. What this means is, we Sonicers can both build positions as the MMs build, or we can trade opposite the MMs. For example, if the MMs are pushing up prices and building shorts as they go, we can also or we can be in a counter-MM long trade. If the MMs are pushing down prices and building longs as they go, we can also or we can be in a counter-MM short trade. PVSRA is used to determine if the MMs are bulls or bears. Once you determine that, you are best able to set your strategy for trading, with the MMs or counter-MMs, as price achieves landmark S&R levels (whole, half, quarter levels), which are good places to make your trade entries. Sonicer, I hope this "current state" tutorial helps, and that the effort of other PVSRA traders will eventually yield a PVSRA that is simple and as effective as the Sonic R. System it is intended to serve.

像我一遍遍重复的,PVSRA可以判断MM是牛还是熊,但是不能知道他们把价格运动到多远当他们建立头寸时(他们需要建立头寸来欺骗其他交易者提供给他们筹码),因此我们也不能知道MM什么时候开始真正建立他们的获利头寸。这意味着我们可以跟随MM建立头寸,也可以对着建立,举个例子,如果MM在抬升价格以建立空头头寸,我们可以反向建立一个多头头寸,如果MM在压低价格以建立多头头寸,我们可以反向建立一个空头头寸。PVSRA适用于判断MM在做多还是做空,一旦你判断出了这些,你可以更好的制定你的交易策略,跟随MM还是做MM反向,当价格到达支撑阻力位置时(整数、半数、1/4位置),这些都是很好的位置让你进场。

The "SR" in PVSRA
Whole, half and to a much lesser degree the quarter number levels are universal Supply and Demand areas, and to which side of them that the MMs move price and then increase their trading is an indicator as to whether the MMs are bulls or bears. So, for example, if the MMs move price below a whole number and then increase their trading, then that area has become a Demand Zone for the MMs and they are bulls. If the MMs move price above a whole number and then increase their trading, then that area has become a Supply Zone for the MMs and they are bears.


整数、半数、比较少的四分之一位置是普遍的供求区域,并且在哪一侧MM运动价格然后增加他们的交易是一个可以判断MM做多还是做空的指标。因此,举个例子,如果MM把价格运动到一个整数位以下,然后增加他们的交易量,那么这个区域会变成一个需求区域,且MM在做多。如果MM把价格运动到一个整数位以上,然后增加他们的交易量,那么这个区域就成为一个供应区域,并且MM在做空。
Whole and half number areas are significant Demand/Supply zones, and one time they might be of Demand and another time of Supply. The MMs place orders for longs or shorts at such areas making them what they turn out to be. The important thing is not to try and figure out in advance what they will be when price gets there, but to analyze what the MMs do when they get the price there!
整数和半数位置是重要的需求/供应区域,有时他们会成为需求区,有时会成为供应区。MM把做多或做空的订单放在这个区域来按照他们的想法操作。一个重要的事情是当价格达到这个区域不要尝试预测下一步的趋势,而是要分析MM在这里做什么。


Are whole and half numbers the only "most significant" levels that were either a zone of Supply or of Demand when price was last there? No, and Hansma point out that we need to be aware of such other levels, not that they will be of Supply or of Demand as when price was last there, but because if price takes off in their direction then price most likely will eventually get there. Once price revisits a zone of previous Supply or of previous Demand, we can tell via PVSRA what type of zone it is now. If PVSRA indicates the MMs are bulls, then it remains or has switched to a Demand Zone.If PVSRA indicates the MMs are bears, then it remains or has switched to a Supply Zone. The important thing about such levels other than whole/half numbers is not knowing what they will be (Supply or Demand) when price next gets there, but to know they are possible targets. Once price gets there, based on PVSRA we will know then what the area is (Supply or Demand).
整数、半数位是唯一的“最重要”位置当价格持续运动在那的时候?不,Hansma指出我们要注意另外一些位置,当价格持续在那里的时候不会成为需求和供应区域,但是如果价格离开这些位置最终很可能回到那里,一旦价格再次到达之前的需求或供应区域,通过PVSAR我们可以知道这个区域现在是什么。如果PVSAR显示MM在做多,那么这里保持或转化为一个需求区域,如果PVSAR显示MM在做空,那么这里保持或转变为一个供应区域。一个重要的事情是这些位置与整数位不同不知道他们将会成为什么区域,但是知道他们是可能的目标。一旦价格再次达到这里,通过PVSAR我们可以知道他们这个区域是什么。


For me personally, I don't pay much attention to historic "Supply" and "Demand" areas as targets, and of course I never concern myself with what they might be (Supply or Demand) should price next get there. I find using whole, half and quarter number levels are universal enough, in that order of priority, that I can trade very profitably and with a lot more simplicity. Inter-day swings tend to be birthed in these areas and die in these areas. And it makes my trading life a lot less complicated to trade off of them.However, I do pay close attention to all of Hansma's posts because he is a "no messing around" success doing what he does. He has a lot to offer to anyone willing to listen up and learn.Important: sometimes PVSRA results are unclear and you simply must keep analyzing until they become clear.


我个人而言,我没有太注意历史的供应和需求区域,所以我个人也没有很关心他们当价格再次来到时是什么样的区域。我发现使用整数、半数和1/4位置已经足够,我可以交易的非常得力并简单很多,并让我的交易生活简化出来。然而,我最近开始关注Hansma的帖子因为他不是一个混乱交易成功的人,他有很多的建议给愿意学习和了解的人。重要的是:有时PVSRA的信号不清晰你必须不断分析知道它的信号明确。
每个人都是独特的,但是当牵扯到钱,差异很快就抹平了。

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发表于 2017-10-22 18:25 | 显示全部楼层
谢谢分享
如果你认为看懂了市场,那你一定是误解了市场。

市场从来不在乎你、我或任何专家,从不会按照你认为发生什么就应该要发生什么那样。

在市场中赚钱并不容易,但是有可能的,只有把资金、技术、心理这三者和谐地融汇贯通去指导行为,将会走向更加有利可图的交易之路!
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