好文共享 -- 外汇交易的风险/回报与资金管理（转）

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可惜缺图片，大家胡乱看看吧，思路很好的。
Risk Reward and Money Management in ForexTrading
外汇交易的风险/回报与资金管理
This could possibly be the most important Forextrading article you ever read.That might sound like a bold statement, but it’sreally not too bold when you consider the fact that proper money management isthe most important ingredient to successful Forex trading.
这可能是你看过的最重要的外汇交易文章。这听起来像是一个很夸大的声明，但当你心里明白认同，正确的资金管理是成功地进行外汇交易的重要的组成部分时，这就显得并不那么夸大了。
Money management in Forex trading is the termgiven to describe the various aspects of managing your risk and reward on everytrade you make. If you don't fully understand the implications of moneymanagement as well as how to actually implement money management techniques,you have a very slim chance of becoming a consistently profitable trader.
外汇交易的资金管理指对你所作出的每一笔交易的风险和回报进行多方面的控制和调整的管理。如果你没有切实了解资金管理技术是如何有效地管理好资金的话，那么，你成为一个持续盈利的交易者的可能是非常渺茫的。
I am going to explain the most importantaspects of money management in this article; risk / reward, position sizing,and fixed dollar risk vs. percentage risk. So, grab a cup of your favoritebeverage and follow along as I help you understand some of the most criticalconcepts to a profitable Forex trading career:
在这篇文章中，我要来解释资金管理中最重要的几个方面，风险/回报、仓位控制，和固定金额风险VS百分比风险。因此，请你倒上一杯喜欢的饮料，跟着我来弄明白那些能营造你有利可图的外汇交易生涯的关键概念吧。
?Risk Reward风险回报
Risk reward is the most important aspect tomanaging your money in the markets. However, many traders do not completelygrasp how to fully take advantage of the power of risk reward. Every traderin the market wants to maximize their rewards and minimize their risks. This is the basic building block to becoming aconsistently profitable trader. The proper knowledge and implementation of riskreward gives traders a practical framework to do this.
风险回报是管理你的市场资金中的最重要的一个方面。然而，很多的交易者没有完全掌握如何充分地利用风险回报的优势。每一个市场交易者，都要最大限度地提高他们的收益回报，并尽量最小化所承受的风险程度。这是成为持续盈利的交易者的基本要素，而对风险回报的适当了解和实施能给交易者一个做到这点的实用架构。
本帖隐藏的内容
Many traders do not take full advantage of thepower of risk reward because they don't have the patience to consistentlyexecute a large enough series of trades in order to realize what risk rewardcan actually do. Risk reward does not mean simply calculating the risk andreward on a trade, it means understanding that by achieving 2 to 3 times riskor more on all your winning trades, you should be able to make money over aseries of trades even if you lose the majority of the time. When we combine theconsistent execution of a risk / reward of 1:2 or larger with ahigh-probability trading edge like price action, we have the recipe for a verypotent Forex trading strategy.
许多交易者没有能够充分利用好风险回报的优势，因为他们缺乏耐心和坚持，去执行一系列足够大规模的交易以实现优良的风险回报效果。风险回报并不意味着简单地计算交易上的风险和回报。这意味着交易者的盈利交易的回报率应该达到所承受风险的2至3倍甚至更高，这样，即使你在一系列的交易中的一大部分都是亏损的，你仍然能够做到盈利。当我们将一个高胜率的交易技巧如“Price action”和比率能达到1:2甚至更高的风险回报率切实的结合并执行时，我们便拥有了一个有效能的外汇交易策略的诀窍配方了。
Let's take a look at the 4hr chart of Gold tosee how to calculate risk / reward on a pin bar setup. We can see in the chart below there was an obvious pin bar that formedfrom support in an up-trending market, so the price action signal was solid. Next, we calculate the risk; in this case ourstop loss is placed just below the low of the pin bar , so we would thencalculate how many lots we can trade given the stop loss distance. We are going to assume a hypothetical risk of$100 for this example. We cansee this setup has so far grossed a reward of 3 times risk, which would be$300.
让我们来看看黄金的4小时图表，看看如何在锤子线交易体系中计算风险回报。我们看到图表的下方，在一个处于上升趋势的市场的支持位置中产生了一个明显的锤子线，所以这个价格行为的信号是相对可靠的。下一步，我们来计算风险；在这个案例的市况之下，我们把止损放在稍低于锤子线低点的下方位置，现在我们便可以来计算一下我们该用多少手数来交易这一段止损距离。假设我们决定只愿意承担100美元的风险，我们可以看到，这个交易机会将会为我们带来3倍于风险的收益，这将是300美元。
Now, with a reward of 3 times risk, how manytrades can we lose out of a series of 25 and STILL make money? The answer is 18 trades or 72%. That's right; you can lose 72% of your tradeswith a risk / reward of 1:3 or better and STILL make money…..over a series oftrades.
好，现在我们获得一个3倍于风险的预期回报，假设我们将对这个预期进行25笔的交易，那我们可以在亏损其中多少笔的情况下，仍然能够做到盈利呢？答案是18笔或者72%。没错！不用怀疑你的耳朵，我的确说的是：以1:3的风报率甚至更高来进行一系列的交易，就算72%的交易笔数你是亏损的，你仍然能做到最终是盈利的。
Here is the math real quick: 18 losing trades at $100 risk = -$1800 , 7winning trades with a 3 R (risk) reward = $2100 . So, after 25 trades you would have made $300 , but you also would havehad to endure 18 losing trades…and the trick is that you never know when thelosers are coming. Youmight get 18 losers in a row before the 7 winners pop up, that is unlikely, butit IS possible.
以下是快速的数学：每笔100美元的风险X18笔的亏损=-$1800, 7笔的成功盈利X3倍于风险的回报= $2100。所以，在25笔交易之后，你仍然能够有300美元的获利，但你不得不忍受18笔的亏损...可吊诡的是：你将不知道什么时候亏损会来临。你可能会在7笔盈利实现之前连续18笔亏损，这听起来运气糟透了，但这是可能的。
So, risk / reward essentially all boils down tothis main point; you have to have the fortitude to set and forget your tradesover a large enough series of executions to realize the full power of risk /reward. Now, obviously if you areusing a high-probability trading method like price action strategies , youaren't likely to lose 72% of the time. So, just imagine what you can do if you properly and consistentlyimplement risk reward with an effective trading strategy like price action.
所以，风险回报的核心可以归结到这样一个重点上来；你必须有毅力并且满功率地去贯彻执行围绕着风险回报这一主旨所制定的足够庞大的一系列交易。现在，很显然，假如你正使用一个如“Price action”策略系统这样的高概率交易方法的话，你是绝对不会损失72%的交易的。所以，想象一下你可以做些什么，如果你在像“Price action”这样有效的交易策略的前提下正确地贯彻落实风险回报。
Unfortunately, most trades are either tooemotionally undisciplined to implement risk reward correctly, or they don'tknow how to. Meddling in your trades by moving stops further from entry or nottaking logical 2 or 3 R profits as they present themselves are two big mistakestraders make. they also tend to take profits of 1R or smaller, this only meansyou have to win a much higher percentage of your trades to make money over thelong-run.Remember, trading is a marathon,not a sprint, and the WAY YOU WIN the marathon is through consistentimplementation of risk reward combined with the mastery of a truly effectivetrading strategy.
不幸的是，大多数交易者情绪化和缺乏纪律性阻碍了风险回报的正确贯彻和执行，或者他们根本不知道该如何执行。自入场位向不利的方向扩大止损或者把获利位设置在不符合2和3倍于风险的没有逻辑性的位置，这是交易者容易犯下的最重大的两个错误。他们往往采取仅1倍于风险的获利甚至更少，这意味着从长期交易盈利的角度，你必须能创造更高比例的交易成功率。请记住，交易是一场马拉松，不是短跑，而你赢得马拉松胜利的方法就是通过结合掌握真正有效的交易策略和风险回报的贯彻实施。
? Position Sizing 仓位控制
Position sizing is the term given to theprocess of adjusting the number of lots you trade to meet your pre-determinedrisk amount and stop loss distance. That is a bit of a loaded sentence for the newbie's.So, let's break it down piece by piece. This is how you calculate your position size onevery trade you make:
仓位控制是调整交易的头寸的数量以符合你预先设定的风险金额和止损距离的一个步骤。这一点对于新手来说是一个小难点。所以，让我们来各个击破吧。以下是你如何计算每一笔交易的仓位控制的步骤：
1) First you need to decide howmuch money in dollars (or whatever your national currency is) you areCOMFORTABLE WITH LOSING on the trade setup. This is not something you should take lightly. You need to genuinely be OK with losing on any ONE trade, because as wediscussed in the previous section, you could indeed lose on ANY trade; younever know which trade will be a winner and which will be a loser.
1) 首先你需要确定在你的交易体系里，每次交易，多少美元（或者换算成你的本国货币）的损失你可以接受而不会揪心的。这可不是你可以掉以轻心的。你必须确定当你损失任何一笔交易的时候你的心情都必须是平静的，因为我们在上一节曾经论述过，你确实会损失任何一笔的交易；你并不知道哪一笔最终会盈利和哪一笔最终会亏损。
2) Find the most logical placeto put your stop loss. If you are trading a pin bar setup this will usually bejust above / below the high / low of the tail of the pin bar. Similarly, the other setups I teach generallyhave “ideal” places to put your stop loss. The basic idea is to place your stop loss at a level that will nullifythe setup if it gets hit, or on the other side of an obvious support orresistance area; this is logical stop placement. What you should NEVERDO, is place your stop too close to your entry atan arbitrary position just because you want to trade a higher lot size, this isGREED, and it will come back to bite you much harder than you can possiblyimagine.
2) 找到并把止损放在最合理的地方。如果你是根据锤子线策略来交易的，那通常应该把止损放在锤子线的影线的高点以上或低点以下。同样的，使用我所教授过的其它的交易模式的，也有各自专属的理想的止损位置的。其基本思路是，假如你所设置的止损被击发，那么它所在的支撑/阻力水平将视为无效。应设置在明显的支撑/阻力区间的另一侧；这才是符合逻辑的止损设置。你不该去做的是：因为你持有了重仓而把止损随意地放在太靠近你入场点的位置，这是贪婪，它会回头来咬你比你能想象的更可怕。
3) Next, you need to enter the number of lotsor mini-lots that will give you the $ risk you want with the stop loss distanceyou have decided is the most logical. One mini-lot is typically about $1 per pip, so if your pre-defined riskamount is $100 and your stop loss distance 50 pips, you will trade 2 mini-lots;$2 per pip x 50 pip stop loss = $100 risked.
3)接下来，你需要最合理地根据你预先计划的能承受多少美元的风险来确定止损距离，从而计算出该填写的入场多少手数或是多少迷你手。一个迷你手通常大约每一点的点值是1美元，所以如果你预先设定的风险金额是100美元，而止损距离在50点的时候，你就可以开立2个迷你手头寸；2美元/点X50点止损=100美元风险。
The three steps above describe how to properlyuse position sizing . Thebiggest point to remember is that you NEVER adjust your stop loss tomeet your desired position size; instead you ALWAYS adjust your position size tomeet your pre-defined risk and logical stop loss placement. This is VERY IMPORTANT, read it again.
以上述三个步骤描述了如何正确使用头寸的大小。你要记住的最重要的要点是：你永远都不要再去调整你的止损位置来对应你的仓位控制；相反，你应该总是只调整你头寸的大小来对应你预先定义的风险和合理的止损位置。这点非常重要，再读一遍。
The next important aspect of position sizingthat you need to understand, is that it allows you to trade the same $ amountof risk on any trade. For example, just because you have to have a wider stopon a trade doesn’t mean you need to risk more money on it, and just because youcan have a smaller stop on a trade does not mean you will risk less money it.You adjust your position size to meet your pre-determined risk amount, nomatter how big or small your stop loss is. Many beginning traders get confusedby this and think they are risking more with a bigger stop or less with asmaller stop; this is not necessarily the case.
另一个你需要清楚的关于仓位控制的重点是，它允许你在任何一笔交易里承受相同数额的风险。例如，你并不需要因为不得不设置一个较为宽幅的止损而去冒更大数目金额的风险，或者因为你可以设置一个较小的止损幅度而相对就冒更小金额的风险。你只需要调整头寸的大小来配合你预设的止损金额，而与你的止损的大小无关。许多刚入门的交易者会困惑于调整止损的大小来控制所承受的风险；这是不一定的情况。
Let’s take a look at the current daily chart ofthe EURUSD below. We can see two different price action trading setups;a pin bar setup and an inside-pin bar setup. These setups required differentstop loss distances, but as we can see in the chart below we still would riskthe exact same amount on both trades, thanks to position sizing:
让我们来看看以下EUR/USD的日线图。我们能看到有两个不同的“Price action trading”策略结构；一个是锤子线结构，一个是内部日结构。这些结构需要设置不同的止损距离，但我们可以看到在以下的图表里，我们在两单交易里都冒着同样数额的风险，这得益于仓位控制：
? Fixed $ risk vs. % risk 固定金额风险VS百分百风险
In a previous article that I wrote about moneymanagement titled “ Forex Trading Money Management – An Eye Opening Article”, Iargued that using a fixed dollar amount of risk is superior to the percent ofaccount risk model. Theprimary argument I make about this topic is that although the % R method willgrow an account relatively quickly when a trader hits a series of winners, itactually slows account growth after a trader hits a series of losers, and makesit very difficult to bring the account back up to where it previously stood. This is because with the % R risk model youtrade fewer lots as your account value decreases, while this can be good tolimit losses, it also essentially puts you in a rut that is very hard to getout of. What is needed is mastery ofone's trading strategy combined with a fixed dollar risk you are comfortablewith losing on any given trade, and when you combine these factors withconsistent execution of risk / reward, you have an excellent chance at makingmoney over a series of trades.
在之前的文章中，我写了一篇名为“外汇交易资金管理——开眼界的文章”，我认为使用固定金额止损优于账户百分比风险止损模型。我对这个话题的主要论点是，虽然交易者通过使用百分比风险模型的方法，经过一系列连续盈利后使得账户的增长相对较快，但事实上，当交易者在往后经历连串亏损的交易后使得账户的增长放慢后，就很难能使账户增长能超越之前的高度。这是因为当账户净值在减少的情况下，采用百分比风险模型所能进行交易的手数也相应的减少了，这势必有利于你控制损失，但同时却让你陷入难以摆脱的泥沼。我们需要的是，掌握一套交易策略并将其和固定美元金额风险结合在一起去完成每一笔既定的交易，当你能结合这些因素和切实执行风险回报的时候，你就拥有了一个极好的几率去通过一系列的交易来盈利。
Many professional traders use the fixed dollarrisk method because they know that they have mastered their Forex tradingstrategy , they don't over-trade, and they don't over-leverage, so they cansafely risk a set amount they are comfortable with losing on any trade. The flip side of this is that pro tradersactually withdrawal their profits from their trading account each month, theiraccount then goes back to its “baseline” level. The % R method causes traders to be in a near perpetual draw-down stateafter hitting a large series of losers, because they are now risking a muchsmaller amount of money, this can have the effect of causing the trader tonever get his or her account back to breakeven.
许多专业交易员使用固定美元风险的办法来交易，因为他们知道自己掌握了一套属于自己的外汇交易策略，他们不过度交易，也没有使用过度的杠杆，所以他们能够轻松的接受在高安全系数的风险下任何失败的交易。与此相反的是，有些交易员每月都从账户中提取利润，从而账户又回到一个基准水平。采用百分比风险模型方法，导致交易者在经历一系列较大的亏损交易之后，账户便接近永久萎缩的状态（按：除非追加保证金），因为他们现在由于账户资金的缩水，而使得可用以承受风险的金额也相应缩水了，这将使交易者永远都难以使账户回到盈亏平衡点上来。
Let's take a look at a hypothetical example of25 trades. We are comparing the fixed $risk model to a 2% account risk model. It's quite obvious upon analyzing this series of random trades that thefixed $ model is superior. Sureyou will draw your account down a bit quicker when you hit a series of loserswith the fixed $ model, but the flip side is that you also build your accountmuch quicker when you hit a series of winners.
让我们来看看以下25次交易的假想例子。我们将对固定金额风险模型和2%账户风险模型进行对比。很显然，经过一系列随机交易后显示采用固定金额风险模型是优越的。当然这也会使你在经历一些列失败交易后，账户缩水比较快，但从另一面看，你同样能在经历一系列盈利交易后让账户迅速增长起来。
Now this example is a bit extreme, if you aretrading with price action trading strategies and have truly mastered them, youshouldn't be losing 68% of the time; your winning percentage is likely toaverage close to 50%. Youcan imagine how much better the results would be with a 50% winning percentage.If you won 50% of the time over 25 trades whilerisking $100 on a $2,000 account, you would have $4,500. If you won 50% of the time over 25 trades while risking 2%of $2,000, you would have only about $3,300.
这个例子有点极端，假如你运用“Price action”交易策略并且熟练地掌握它，你是绝对不会损失掉68%的交易的；你的胜率平均值将接近50%。你能够想象到假如你的胜率达到50%的话结果会有多么亮丽。如果你在起始资金为$2,000的账户上按每次交易$100的风险来进行25笔交易，而且成功率在50%的话，结果你的账户将拥有了$4,500。而假如你使用的是2%账户风险模型，同样胜率50%来进行这25笔交易，结果最后你只能使账户达到大约$3,300。
So, the conclusion from this article is asfollows. To succeed at trading theForex markets, you need to not only thoroughly understand risk / reward ,position sizing, and risk amount per trade, you also need to consistentlyexecute each of these aspects of money management in combination with a highlyeffective yet simple to understand trading strategy like price action .
因此，本文的结论如下:要取得在外汇市场的交易成功，你不单要彻底弄懂风险/回报，仓位控制，和每单交易的风险金额，你还需要把以上有关于资金管理的各样因素贯彻执行于一套高效明显而且简单易懂如“Price action”这样的交易策略上来。

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