强势美元

猜猜我是谁

While the real-trade-weighted USD is now at its strongest level since 2009, having already appreciated about 7% since July, the move is still quite modest when put in the historic context of real USD moves in the post-Bretton Woods era, and, in particular, the two periods of significant dollar appreciation from October 1978 to March 1985 and from July 1995 to February 2002. We look into the drivers of these past dollar-strengthening episodes, and what these lessons from history might mean for today.

The basics: Why does the dollar strengthen?

The causes and consequences of a stronger USD can be hard to disentangle. Different economic impulses can produce the same end “result” in terms of currency moves, but may have different implications more broadly. In particular, contractionary monetary policy, expansionary fiscal policy, or a reduction in country-specific risk can all plausibly leave the similar footprint of a stronger local currency (and declining net exports). Focusing on these root causes helps to point out critical similarities and differences between historical episodes and the current context.

1978-1985: US policy exceptionalism

From 1978 to 1985 the USD appreciated by 53% in real, trade-weighted terms, driven in large part by coincident shifts in US economic policy. In a departure from the prevailing policy stance, US monetary policy became far more contractionary, as the Volcker Fed sought to aggressively combat inflation and deeply ingrained inflationary expectations. Both long- and short-term interest rates climbed sharply throughout, and inflation and inflation expectations declined dramatically. At the same time, US fiscal policy became expansionary, with US deficits turning sharply more negative, and debt to GDP surging – even on a cyclically adjusted, “structural” basis. Each of these shifts alone would have pointed to a stronger currency; together, they amplified the impacts.

The 1978-1985 episode saw USD strength coinciding with a decline in net exports. From an accounting perspective, a declining current account is tied to a shortfall of US saving relative to US investment. In the 1980s, the widening current account was driven by declines in both savings and investment, with the savings shortfall even more dramatic. This is a very different “pattern” of current account widening relative to the 1990s.

1995-2002: US growth exceptionalism

The 1990s episode of dollar strength, with the real dollar appreciating by 34%, likely had more to do with a shift in some combination of improved perception of US risks as well as persistent and, perhaps exceptional and unexpected, demand strength. Indeed, economic growth was elevated, consumer spending was strong, savings rates declined and incomes grew. Critically, productivity growth was accelerating, keeping inflation dormant and helping to sustain the longest US expansion on record. The US fiscal balance improved, deficits got smaller, and interest rates fell.

Despite a very different backdrop relative to the 1980s, the net result was similar: a stronger USD, a decline in net exports and wider trade deficits. But unlike the 1980s episode, the widening current account deficit of the 1990s was driven by accelerating investment with savings unable to keep pace. Thus, the virtuous cycle of lower interest rates, lower debt payments, capital deepening, and productivity growth helped to make the 1990s dollar appreciation – at 120 months from trough to peak – the longest on record (so far).

But toward the end of this episode, USD strength may have had more to do with US risks looking far better than other alternatives, with external currency crises enhancing the relative “virtue” of the US. That the Asian crisis barely touched the US economy itself only helped to reinforce the dollar strengthening trend that had already been in train for some time.

Today: more exceptional in growth than in policy

While neither historical analogy is exactly right – and to be clear, our forecasts do not envisage a move as large or as long as the past episodes – there are elements of both episodes that currently seem to be in play. From a policy perspective, on the fiscal side of the ledger, our US forecast does not envisage much of an incremental positive impulse from government spending, with the budget deficit steadily improving. But, in 2014 some of the growth boost did come from a relaxation of fiscal tightening, which can be thought of as a positive fiscal policy impulse.

Similarly, on the monetary policy side, we do expect the Fed to start raising rates in 3Q2015. Although rate increases are expected to be modest, well telegraphed, and implemented against the backdrop of moderate inflation (at worst), the US monetary impulse seems magnified by the fact that the rest of the world, certainly in Europe and Japan, is leaning in the other direction. So here too, elements of contractionary monetary policy may be helping to support the USD, as in the 1980s.

But comparisons to the 1990s seem more apt in terms of the type and source of the relative exceptionalism. First, US growth is far more robust than elsewhere in the world, and yields, already higher, are expected to rise, both of which support and could be reflecting improving US risk sentiment, which would match the 1990 experience. Also, while not the same as a productivity shock, falling oil prices and the growing importance of the domestic oil production sector can deliver some similar economy-wide dynamics, which would also be more in line with the 1990 USD strengthening episode. Indeed, recent current account weakness seems to be spurred by a declining saving rate – as house prices and equity prices boost wealth – while investment spending is on the rise, again, in a pattern reminiscent of the 1990s.

This comparison has important implications for US policy in response to dollar appreciation. On the weaker economic backdrop of the 1980s, the competitiveness of US industry and agriculture suffered from a stronger currency. Protectionist sentiment escalated until the 1985 Plaza Accord between the US and its trading partners devalued the dollar. The 1990s, on the other hand, saw a relative absence of protectionism, as improving productivity and growing trade made dollar strength less of a target for policymakers.

On net, the greater similarities with the relative “growth exceptionalism” of the 1990s are perhaps comforting, with dollar strength more an outcome of positive developments – that are likely to continue – than the negative, defensive drivers that forced the “policy exceptionalism” of the 1980s.

猜猜我是谁

而实际贸易加权美元现在是2009以来的最高水平，已经升值约7%，自七月以来，此举还是相当温和的时候放在后布雷顿森林时代，真正的美元移动的历史语境，特别是从十月到3月的1978，1985和1995七月至2002二月两美元大幅升值的时期。我们看看过去的这些美元升值事件驱动，而这些历史教训可能意味着今天。
基础知识：为什么美元加强？
和一个美元走强的后果的原因难以解开的。不同的经济冲动可以产生相同的最终“在汇率波动，但结果“可能有不同的影响更广泛的。特别是，紧缩的货币政策，扩张性的财政政策，或在特定国家的风险降低都振振有词地离开本币走强相似的足迹（和下降的净出口）。针对这些原因有助于指出关键的相似性和差异性的历史事件和当前上下文之间。
年：美国卓异主义
从1978到1985美元的53%房升值，贸易加权计算，在很大程度上推动美国经济政策一致的变化。在离开当时的政策立场，美国的货币政策变得更为紧缩，沃克尔的美联储试图积极对抗通胀和通胀预期的根深蒂固的。长期和短期利率大幅攀升，通货膨胀和通胀预期大幅下降。同时，美国的财政政策成为扩张，与美国赤字急剧转向更负，和债务与国内生产总值飙升–甚至在周期性调整，“结构”的基础上。这些变化会指出，货币升值；在一起，他们放大的影响。
年看见的插曲美元正好与净出口下降。从会计的角度，减少经常账户与缺口储蓄相对于美国投资。在80年代，不断扩大的经常账户的储蓄和投资下降驱动的，与储蓄不足更戏剧化。这是一个非常不同的“模式”的经常账户扩大相对于上世纪90年代。

年：美国经济增长的卓异论
美元走强的90年代的插曲，与真正的美元升值34%，可能更多的是在我们改进的视觉组合的风险转移以及持续的，也许是特殊的和意想不到的，需求强度。事实上，经济增长是升高的，消费支出强劲，储蓄率下降，收入增长。至关重要的是，生产率的增长加速，让通胀处于休眠状态，帮助维持的最长的纪录我们扩张。美国财政平衡的改善，赤字缩小了，与利率的下降。
尽管相对于上世纪80年代一个非常不同的背景下，最终的结果是相似的：一个不断走强的美元，净出口和扩大的贸易赤字下降。但不同于上世纪80年代的插曲，日益扩大的经常账户赤字的90年代是通过加快投资与储蓄无法跟上驱动。因此，低利率的良性循环，降低债务，资本深化，以及生产率的增长使美元升值–90年代从槽120个月的峰值–最长的纪录（到目前为止）。
但对这集最后，美元有可能不得不更多地与我们的风险远远比其他的替代品，与外部的货币危机，提高相对的“美德”的我们。，亚洲金融危机几乎没有触及美国经济本身不仅帮助加强美元升值趋势已经在训练一段时间。
今天：在生长比政策更出色
虽然没有历史的类比是完全正确的–和需要澄清的是，我们的预测没有设想的举动大或只要过去发作–有两次，现在似乎是在玩元素。从政策的角度来看，在总账的财政方面，我们预测不打算多的政府消费增量的正脉冲，与预算赤字稳步提高。但是，在2014的增长促进了来自一个放松财政紧缩，这可以被认为是作为一个积极的财政政策的冲动。

同样，在货币政策方面，我们预计美联储开始提高利率的3q2015。虽然加息的预期是温和的，世界的，并实现了对温和通胀的背景下（在最坏的情况），美国的货币冲击似乎的事实，世界各地的放大，当然在欧洲和日本，倚在另一个方向。所以在这里，紧缩性货币政策的元素可以帮助支撑美元，20世纪80年代。
在类型和源项，但没有相对比较90年代似乎更容易。首先，美国的经济增长是更强大的比在世界其他地方，收益率，已经高，预计将上升，这两个支持可以提高我们的风险情绪反映，这将匹配1990经验。同时，在不一样的生产率冲击，石油价格下跌和国内石油生产部门日益增长的重要性可以提供一些类似的经济动力，也将在1990美元加强集线。事实上，最近经常账户的弱点似乎是由储蓄率下降，–房价和股票价格增加财富–而投资支出在增加，刺激了，在上世纪90年代的图案让人联想到。
这种比较在应对美元升值对美国政策的重要意义。在20世纪80年代的经济低迷的背景下，美国产业的竞争力和农业遭受货币升值。贸易保护主义情绪升级到1985的广场协议，美国及其贸易伙伴之间的美元贬值。上世纪90年代，在另一方面，看到一个相对没有保护主义，为提高生产率和增长的贸易政策制定者更少的美元走强的目标。
净，更大的相似性与90年代的相对增长卓异论”也许是安慰，与美元的力量更积极的发展–的结果有可能继续–比消极的，防守的司机被迫“政策卓异论”的年代。


百度翻译 面目全非

naniking

Well done, keep grow thing and force dollar fighting

昆仑k2

猜版  翻过来撒

我的宝马

关键字：
on the monetary policy side, we do expect the Fed to start raising rates in 3Q2015.
在货币政策方面,我们预计美联储在2015年第三季度开始提高利率。

frlin2003

这谁要是翻译出来，就nb了。
花了一小时，才干出一段

frlin2003

瞬间提高的英语水平无法满足日益增长的新英语之间的矛盾

猜猜我是谁

frlin2003 发表于 2014-12-21 12:10
这谁要是翻译出来，就nb了。
花了一小时，才干出一段

我也在等{:soso_e102:}

frlin2003

猜猜我是谁 发表于 2014-12-21 20:30
我也在等

花了2小时，搞了2段，删了。发现一个问题，作者写的就语句不通顺{:soso_e117:}

frlin2003

这个好像是提纲。
对比历史走势，提到美国例外论，说当前的美元涨势与历史2次高峰升值相比，还是很温和的。80 90年代2次美元升值中，经济快速增长，贸易赤字下降，消费增加，通胀水平可控，等。
主要讲当前美国面临的现状和80 90年代的相同点在什么地方。
没看到亮点

hataxu

路过看下

frlin2003

美元指数（贸易加权指数）走势创2009年以来最高水平；
今年7月以来累计升幅达7%左右；
从后布雷顿森林体系时代的两次美元升值高峰期来看
（1978.10-1985.03；1995.07-2002.02）
本轮美元涨势还是比较温和的；
对比历史走势，从中能发现一些端倪。

第一：美元走强的根源？
为了便于理解，
先了解下经济现象的背景
尤其是不同货币政策时期内不同的经济现象的背景
各货币政策周期分三类：
紧缩货币政策
宽松货币政策
经济可持续复苏本币走强（净出口在下降）。
在这些货币政策周期中，
虽然导致汇率波动的因素不同
但是汇率都是上涨的。


第二：1978-1985期间的经济现象，美国例外轮，即美国经济增长唯一论
从1978年到1985年；
美元指数实际上涨了53%;
美元指数的上涨
在很大程度上也促进美国经济政策的改变。
当前政策上：
货币政策会更加紧缩
同时美联储将通胀和通胀预期作为制定货币政策的依据；
长期和短期利率大幅飙升；
通胀和通胀预期同时大幅下降。
与此同时，
实行了积极的财政扩张政策，
赤字增加，
债务占GDP比重攀升
同时人民币升值也影响到美国的货币政策。

yy2段{:soso_e129:}

luckgold

1995.07-2002.02期间的美元升值，伴随着是小日本的经济停滞！有木有？