最重要经济指标变化：美联储公布衡量就业新指标（公布值2.5）

fzqflash

转自华尔街见闻----


美联储本周宣布将从2014年10月6日(下周一)开始发布一项反应就业市场整体状况的新指标：就业市场状况指数(labor market conditions index LMCI)。美联储表示该指标将会比非农更好的反映出劳动力市场的真实情况。

过去几年以来，美联储主席耶伦和其他官员都在致力于发开新的指标，从而在非农单一指标的基础上更好的展示就业情况。

就业市场状况指数是一个综合指数，该指数将从19个指标中得出。这其中包括从失业率这样的重要指标和就业计划调查这样的小指标。就业市场状况指数的推出，就是为了提供一个更为全面的劳动力市场参考指标。

Jefferies的经济学家Thomas Simons认为新指标在未来几个月将起到关键的作用，无论是联储内部还是市场人士都会仔细评估该指标的影响力。

美联储在其官网上表示，美国新的就业市场状况指数将在每月非农之后第一个周一的上午10点钟左右公布。不过由于还处于研究阶段，并非属于官方数据，因此如果有延后公布或者计算调整的话将不会提前告知。

美联储同时在官网上公布了自1976年4月以来的LMCI数据，数据显示尽管第一季度GDP同比下降2.1%，但是就业市场却有所改善




去美联储官网看了一下，下面是英文的说明，谁英文好翻一下，{:soso_e113:}

October 1, 2014
Updating the Labor Market Conditions Index

Hess Chung, Christopher Nekarda, David Ratner
In our recent FEDS Note, Assessing the Change in Labor Market Conditions (May 22, 2014), we introduced a new tool, the labor market conditions index (LMCI), which we found to be useful for assessing changes in labor market conditions.1 The LMCI is derived from a dynamic factor model that extracts the primary common variation from 19 labor market indicators. (See Table 1 in that Note for a list of the indicators.)
Starting this Monday, October 6th, we will provide updated estimates of the LMCI every month. In general, we will endeavor to have the updated series posted sometime after 10:00 a.m. on the first business day following the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. (You can find the release schedule here.) Of course, because the LMCI is a staff research product and not an official statistical release, it is subject to delay, revision, or methodological changes without advance notice.2
Although we will not write a new FEDS Note each month, the latest estimate of the LMCI will be posted as a comma-separated values (CSV) file at the permanent URL http://www.federalreserve.gov/ec ... iles/lmci_feds.csv. This coming Monday, the series available at the link will be the model's estimate of the change in labor market conditions through September, given data available through October 3rd. (Until then, the link will point to the LMCI estimate from our May 22 Note.)
Going forward, users of the LMCI should take note that the entire history of the LMCI may revise each month. Three sources contribute to such revisions. The first source is new data that were not available at the time of the employment report. In particular, at the time of the Employment Situation report each month, the quit rate and hiring rate will be missing for the last two months of the sample because the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey is published with a longer lag than the model's other indicators. In subsequent months, as these data become available, the LMCI will revise.
The second source of revision comes from revisions to existing data. Many labor market indicators are subject to revision as additional source data become available or to incorporate annual benchmark revisions or updated seasonal adjustment factors. Prominent examples in the LMCI include the three payroll employment series from the Current Employment Statistics program.
The third source of revision is inherent to the model. The LMCI is derived from the Kalman smoother, meaning that the estimate of the index in any particular month is the model's best assessment given all past and future observations. Thus, when a new month of data is added to the sample, the model will revise its estimate of history in response to the new information. In practice, these revisions tend to be modest and concentrated in the most-recent six months of the sample.

猜猜我是谁

涨姿势{:soso_e179:}

刘小备

主要是市场买不买账  不然只能是参考作用  

Toro

替代非农是个漫长的过程

fzqflash

美国9月就业市场状况指数LMCI∶2.5 ，据说预测是5，这是不及预期啊

fzqflash

美银美林

如何解读LMCI？
从4月公布的数据来看，LMCI自年初起持续徘徊在4附近。自2009年7月起，该数据转为正值。自有统计以来的均值是4.9，这表明近期的数据有所下降。
从一元回归角度分析，非农私企就业人口数据能够解释63%的LMCI。比如，4月公布的LMCI是6.3，通过回归计算，等同于非农私企就业人口增加27.5万人；这与实际公布的27.8万人已经十分接近了。从4月以来就业市场的趋势来看，我们预计本次公布的LMCI在5左右。
通过本行的计算，当非农私企就业人口增加30万人时，对应的LMCI指数应该在7左右。如果LMCI能够达到这一水平，意味着就业市场出现了一个很有意义的上行动能信号。