看基本面分析的两种风格

loodnew

先引用两家投行的英文原文，然后比较他们2015年实际交易的结果。

Morgan Stanley FX Chart Of The Week: Momentum Indicators

The relative strength index (RSI) takes into an account the past 14 days of closing prices and measures whether there were more bullish days relative to bearish. The latest market data indicated that EURSEK momentum is approaching an extreme to the upside indicating overbought positions, with USDZAR potentially soon approaching an oversold area below 30.


The past month had strong upside in the RSI for AUDUSD, but have not yet reached overbought level above 70.

Although market risks somewhat eased last week, according to Credit Agricole mainly due to decreased Fed expectations, the FX markets remain volatile with some currencies gaining strong momentum in recent weeks. Looking at moving averages helps to put the moves into context.

“USDJPY is now the furthest below the 50, 100 and 200DMA (day moving average) relative to all other pairs. At the other end of the spectrum, EURUSD and EURSEK appear stretched and prone to retrace lower,” Morgan Stanley added.

简单翻译：
大摩一周外汇图表分析：动量指标
相对强弱指标(RSI) ，是参考过去14天以来的收盘价，并衡量上涨天数是否多于下跌天数。最新的数据显示，欧元/瑞典克朗正逼近上行极限，处于超买区间，而美元/南非兰特或很快接近超卖区间(30下方)。

过去的一个月，澳元/美元的RSI指标已经强劲上升，但尚未达到超卖水平（70上方）。

尽管上周风险情绪有所缓解，根据法农信的说法：主要是美联储加息预期降温，而外汇市场依旧动荡，特别是那些最近几周势头强劲的货币，参考移动均线能更好地把握外汇走势。

大摩表示，相对于其他货币对而言，美元/日元是偏离50日、100日以及200日移动均线最远的货币对。在另一端，欧元/美元和美元/瑞典克朗这一指标出现攀升，未来或折返而走低。

loodnew

Week Ahead: High Volatility, Buy USD Dips, Limited GBP downside
Credit Agricole CIB

Risk sentiment improved this week, irrespective of weaker Chinese trade data keeping fears over the need of a further CNY depreciation intact. Considering this week’s FOMC meeting minute’s and Fed members’ more cautious rhetoric, a large part of this week’s improvement can be attributed to decreased Fed rate expectations. This explains too why the greenback failed to appreciate this week.

Looking ahead, we believe that global growth uncertainty is likely to keep cross market volatilities high. This, however, does not exclude further improving sentiment, especially considering that the focus will increasingly shift to the G20 meeting at the end of February.

Although it cannot be excluded that the USD faces more downside risk in the shortterm. We believe dips should be bought. This is especially true as further falling Fed rate expectations would imply policy easing. This appears unlikely unless incoming data weakens considerably.

Commodity currencies performed well by the end of the week. When it comes to the NOK and CAD it will remain about oil price developments to drive these currencies, especially as respective central bank rate expectations have been stabilising. Should the greenback become more supported anew, this is likely to prevent oil prices from correcting considerably higher.


What we’re watching

USD – Next week’s PCE data will be key. Only a considerably weaker than expected outcome may lower rate expectations further.

GBP – Growth data should become a more important currency driver anew. Hence next week’s GDP data will be closely watched. We see limited GBP downside risk from the current levels.

JPY – It remains to be seen if weaker inflation data will drive the JPY lower. This is due to increased uncertainty about the BoJ’s policy stance being efficient in bringing inflation back to target.

简单翻译：
下周展望：波动性高，逢低买进美元，英镑下行风险有限

本周风险情绪改善，无视中国疲软的贸易数据，这也引发了人民币进一步贬值的担忧。回过头来看，美联储会议纪要、以及美联储官员更加谨慎的言论，风险情绪的改善大部分归因于美联储加息预期的降温。这样同样解释了美元本周为何没有走高的原因。

展望下周，全球经济增长的不确定性，可能仍然令市场维持高波动性。当然，不排除市场风险情绪的进一步改善，尤其是市场焦点逐渐转向2月底召开的G20财长和央行行长会议。

目前来看美元短期内仍然存在下行风险，但是我们建议应该逢低买进，尤其是在市场预期美联储升息预期进一步降温可能暗示政策出现宽松迹象。但我们认为上述预期不可能出现，除非经济数据极度疲软。

在本周的后段时间，商品货币表现良好，而挪威克朗和加元则依然受到油价走势驱动，尤其是在各自的央行利率预期稳定的环境下。如果美元重新获得市场青睐，那么这将阻止油价反弹。

我们的观点

美元：下周重磅数据是消费支出物价指数(PCE)。除非数据远不及市场预期，才有可能进一步降低美联储加息预期；

英镑：经济增长情况重新成为该货币的推动力，因此下周的GDP数据需要重点关注。我们预计英镑在当前的水平下，下行风险有限；

日元：市场需要关注疲软的通胀数据是否导致日元走低。这是缘于日本央行早前关于通胀回到目标水平的不确定性增加。

loodnew

有人说大摩的报告看起来像是技术分析，但他用了30个货币对做对比，还是基本面分析的一个方法，图表分析不是只有技术分析才能使用。

在大摩的报告中，有段话：欧元/美元和美元/瑞典克朗这一指标出现攀升，未来或折返而走低。  按一般技术分析，3均线出现这样的状态，应该是飞天的节奏，但大摩却说她死期到了，要转跌。

loodnew

两种风格实际交易的结果
大摩主要货币对的实际交易结果最差，但所有货币对的交易结果却最好。


法农信主要货币对的实际交易结果很好，但所有货币对的交易结果却最差。

loodnew

根据交易量看，短线交易效果都比较好，中长线交易最好集中到欧/美、镑/美上。

orchidd

loodnew 发表于 2016-2-21 16:17
根据交易量看，短线交易效果都比较好，中长线交易最好集中到欧/美、镑/美上。

短线都同意，中长线结果不应该这么分析，分析结果应该是投行中长线拿不住非主流货币