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本帖最后由 orchidd 于 2016-1-4 17:36 编辑
A friend of mine trades forex for a hedge fund on a sunny Caribbean island. He's been involved with currencies for more than twenty years, and he once told me this:
我的一位朋友在一个阳光充足的加勒比海岛上的对冲基金交易外汇交易。他与货币有二十多年的参与，他曾经告诉我：
“I rarely trade in December. Many traders are off on vacations; others have already made their profits for the year, so they sit tight and refuse to take any risk in the remaining weeks.
“我很少在十二月交易。许多商人都在休假，其他人已经把他们的利润，因此，他们坐得很紧，拒绝承担任何风险，在剩下的几周。
"So, the forex markets thin out. That makes it easier for big players to push prices around. Trading a trendless market is very difficult, so come December, I scale way back.”
“所以，外汇市场瘦了。这使得大玩家更容易推动价格上涨。一个没有交易市场是非常困难的，所以到了十二月，我表的方式回来。”
Love or hate December's infamous volatility, if you choose to trade this month, you have to deal with it. And this December has certainly been volatile. Take EURUSD, the world's biggest forex market: After rallying from near 1.05 to above 1.10 in the first week of the month, it then fell back to 1.08 -- only to rally towards 1.10 again this week.
爱或憎恨十二月的臭名昭著的波动，如果你选择在这个月交易，你必须处理它。而这十二月肯定是不稳定的。以欧元兑美元，世界最大的外汇交易市场：上涨近1.05以上1.10在这个月的第一周后，然后回落至1.08，仅本周再次朝1.10反弹。
Yet, even in markets like these, taking an Elliott wave perspective can help you stay a step ahead. We've shown how the waves helped us prepare for the big moves in EURUSD on December 3 and December 16 (the day the Fed raised interest rates). This week, the euro served us another example.
然而，即使在市场上，以埃利奥特波的角度来看，也能帮助你保持领先一步。我们已经表明，声波如何帮助我们准备在12月3日和12月16日欧元兑美元的大动作（天美联储提高利率）。本周，欧元为我们提供了另一个例子。
On Tuesday (Dec. 29) EURUSD fell sharply, and without any obvious "fundamental" reason. Yet, the Elliott wave patterns, which track forex traders' collective psychology, called for a euro decline days in advance.
上星期二（12月29日）欧元兑美元大幅下跌，并没有任何明显的“根本”的原因。然而，埃利奥特波的模式，它跟踪外汇交易员的集体心理，称为一个欧元下降日提前。
On December 28, our Currency Pro Service wrote (partial Elliott wave labels shown):
12月28日，我们的货币支持服务（部分埃利奥特波显示）：
[Posted On:] December 28, 2015 09:58 AM
【发布时间：2015年12月28日上午09:58 ]
![]()
(Last Price 1.0981) Near term, small wave degree uncertainty persists within a bigger wave degree firmly bear stance.
（最后价格1.0981）在短期内，小的波动程度的不确定性仍然存在较大的波动程度牢牢地承担立场。
And here's an update from the following day, showing the expected decline:
以下是第二天的更新，显示了预期的下降：
[Posted On:] December 29, 2015 10:39 AM
【发布时间：2015年12月29日上午39 ]
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To be sure, when the forex markets "thin out" during the holidays (or in overnight trading, sometimes) Elliott wave patterns can and do get ambiguous. Above, in the first update, our Currency Pro Service team says point blank: "Near term, small wave degree uncertainty persists."
可以肯定的是，当外汇市场“瘦了”期间（或在一夜之间交易，有时）埃利奥特波模式可以和不明确。以上，在第一次更新中，我们的货币支持服务团队说：“短期内，小波度的不确定性依然存在。”
The good news is, even then you still have 2-3 valid scenarios for the most probable price action ahead. You're still able to shrink the infinite number of future possibilities down to a handful of real, measurable probabilities.
好消息是，即使你仍然有2到3个有效的情况下，最有可能的价格行动。你仍然能够将无限数量的未来的可能性缩小到一个真实的，可测量的概率。
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发表于 2016-1-4 17:31
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