美联储利率决议声明20150430

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FOMC声明：能源价格低迷，非能源产品进口价格下降都“部分”地拖累通胀表现。
FOMC声明：通胀依然低于2%的目标，但预计中期将接近这一目标。
FOMC声明：能源和进口价格对通胀率的影响是暂时的。
FOMC声明：家庭实际收入大幅上涨，因能源价格下滑；消费者信心仍然保持高涨。
FOMC声明：此次货币政策声明是委员一致投票通过的。
FOMC声明：重申经济和就业前景的风险基本平衡。
FOMC声明：低于目标的通胀率部分体现了进口价格下跌。
FOMC声明：劳动力资源仍然未能充分利用。
FOMC声明：基于市场的通胀补偿指标依然低位。
FOMC声明：调查中的长期通胀预期保持稳定。
FOMC声明：商业投资放缓，出口下降。
FOMC声明：家庭开支增速下滑；实际收入增长强劲。
FOMC声明：就业增长放缓，劳动力市场松弛基本不变。
FOMC声明：劳动力市场进一步改善，新增就业人数强劲，失业率继续降低。
FOMC声明：就业闲置问题将会消退。
FOMC声明：预计经济在第一季度放缓之后增长温和、就业增长
FOMC声明：经济增长放缓为暂时性情形。
FOMC声明：通胀处于低位部分原因是能源价格降低。
FOMC声明：经济增长已一定程度放缓。
FOMC声明：预计通胀将继续维持低位。

影响：
主要货币兑在决议之前就已经暴涨，决议后普遍出现70点左右回调。
欧美，最高1.1186，现收1.1113
镑美，最高1.5496，现收1.5427

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Press Release

Release Date: April 29, 2015

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that economic growth slowed during the winter months, in part reflecting transitory factors. The pace of job gains moderated, and the unemployment rate remained steady. A range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources was little changed. Growth in household spending declined; households' real incomes rose strongly, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices, and consumer sentiment remains high. Business fixed investment softened, the recovery in the housing sector remained slow, and exports declined. Inflation continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and decreasing prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Although growth in output and employment slowed during the first quarter, the Committee continues to expect that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run. 

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams.

2015 Monetary Policy Releases


http://www.federalreserve.gov/ne ... etary/20150429a.htm

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美联储埃文斯：认为触发美联储提早加息的条件是核心通胀率大幅高于1.5%或失业率稳定在5%。
美联储埃文斯：自然失业率能不能达到5%有很多不确定性。
美联储埃文斯：若自然失业率降至5%以下，通胀增速或将放缓。
美联储埃文斯：预计薪资增速更为强劲的情况暂时不会出现。
美联储埃文斯：促使通胀升向2%目标水平的动能不多。
美联储埃文斯：将以开放的心态进行政策讨论。
美联储埃文斯：如果薪资增速更为强劲或许会改变对加息的看法。
美联储埃文斯：将不会在2016年之前加息。
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