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用谷歌翻译的，中英文粘贴到一起方便对比。
Open Society Needs Defending
DEC 28, 2016
NEW YORK – Well before Donald Trump was elected President of the United States, I sent a holiday greeting to my friends that read: “These times are not business as usual. Wishing you the best in a troubled world.” Now I feel the need to share this message with the rest of the world. But before I do, I must tell you who I am and what I stand for.
纽约 - 在唐纳德·特朗普被选为美国总统之前，我给我的朋友发了一个假日问候，读到：“这些时候不像往常一样。希望你在一个困扰的世界中最好。“现在我觉得需要与世界其他人分享这个消息。但在我做之前，我必须告诉你我是谁，我的立场。
I am an 86-year-old Hungarian Jew who became a US citizen after the end of World War II. I learned at an early age how important it is what kind of political regime prevails. The formative experience of my life was the occupation of Hungary by Hitler’s Germany in 1944. I probably would have perished had my father not understood the gravity of the situation. He arranged false identities for his family and for many other Jews; with his help, most survived.
我是一个86岁的匈牙利犹太人，在第二次世界大战结束后成为美国公民。我从小就知道，什么样的政治制度占上风是多么重要。我的生活的形成经验是希特勒的德国在1944年占领匈牙利。如果我的父亲不了解情况的严重性，我可能会死亡。他为他的家人和许多其他犹太人安排了假身份;与他的帮助，大多数生存。
In 1947, I escaped from Hungary, by then under Communist rule, to England. As a student at the London School of Economics, I came under the influence of the philosopher Karl Popper, and I developed my own philosophy, built on the twin pillars of fallibility and reflexivity. I distinguished between two kinds of political regimes: those in which people elected their leaders, who were then supposed to look after the interests of the electorate, and others where the rulers sought to manipulate their subjects to serve the rulers’ interests. Under Popper’s influence, I called the first kind of society open, the second, closed.
在1947年，我从匈牙利，在共产党统治下，逃到英国。作为伦敦经济学院的学生，我受到哲学家卡尔·波普尔（Karl Popper）的影响，我发展了我自己的哲学，建立在错误和反思的双重支柱之上。我区分了两种政治制度：人们选举他们的领导人，那些人当时应该照顾选民的利益，以及其他统治者试图操纵他们的主体为统治者的利益服务的政治制度。在波普尔的影响下，我呼吁第一种社会开放，第二种，关闭。
The classification is too simplistic. There are many degrees and variations throughout history, from well-functioning models to failed states, and many different levels of government in any particular situation. Even so, I find the distinction between the two regime types useful. I became an active promoter of the former and opponent of the latter.
分类过于简单。历史上有许多程度和变化，从运作良好的模式到失败的国家，以及在任何特定情况下的许多不同级别的政府。即使如此，我发现两种政权类型之间的区别很有用。我成为前者和后者的对手的积极推动者。
I find the current moment in history very painful. Open societies are in crisis, and various forms of closed societies – from fascist dictatorships to mafia states – are on the rise. How could this happen? The only explanation I can find is that elected leaders failed to meet voters’ legitimate expectations and aspirations and that this failure led electorates to become disenchanted with the prevailing versions of democracy and capitalism. Quite simply, many people felt that the elites had stolen their democracy.
我发现当前的历史时刻非常痛苦。开放社会正处于危机之中，各种形式的封闭社会 - 从法西斯独裁政府到黑手党国家 - 都在增加。这怎么可能发生？我能找到的唯一解释是，当选领导人没有满足选民的合理期望和愿望，这种失败导致选民不满意的民主和资本主义的盛行版本。很简单，许多人认为精英们偷了他们的民主。
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US emerged as the sole remaining superpower, equally committed to the principles of democracy and free markets. The major development since then has been the globalization of financial markets, spearheaded by advocates who argued that globalization increases total wealth. After all, if the winners compensated the losers, they would still have something left over.
在苏联解体之后，美国成为唯一的剩余超级大国，同样致力于民主和自由市场的原则。自那时以来的主要发展是金融市场的全球化，由倡导者主导，他们认为全球化增加了总的财富。毕竟，如果赢家赔偿输家，他们仍然会剩下一些东西。
The argument was misleading, because it ignored the fact that the winners seldom, if ever, compensate the losers. But the potential winners spent enough money promoting the argument that it prevailed. It was a victory for believers in untrammeled free enterprise, or “market fundamentalists,” as I call them. Because financial capital is an indispensable ingredient of economic development, and few countries in the developing world could generate enough capital on their own, globalization spread like wildfire. Financial capital could move around freely and avoid taxation and regulation.
这个论点是误导性的，因为它忽略了一个事实，即赢家很少，如果有的话，补偿输家。但潜在的赢家花了足够的钱推动它的盛行的说法。这是一个信徒的未被战争的自由企业，或“市场原教旨主义者”，我称之为他们的胜利。由于金融资本是经济发展不可或缺的组成部分，发展中世界很少有国家可以自己产生足够的资本，全球化就像野火一样蔓延。金融资本可以自由流动，避免税收和监管。
Globalization has had far-reaching economic and political consequences. It has brought about some economic convergence between poor and rich countries; but it increased inequality within both poor and rich countries. In the developed world, the benefits accrued mainly to large owners of financial capital, who constitute less than 1% of the population. The lack of redistributive policies is the main source of the dissatisfaction that democracy’s opponents have exploited. But there were other contributing factors as well, particularly in Europe.
全球化产生了深远的经济和政治后果。它使贫穷国家和富国之间产生了一些经济趋同;但它增加了贫穷和富裕国家的不平等。在发达国家，主要是对金融资本的大股东产生的好处，它们占人口的不到1％。缺乏再分配政策是民主对手利用的不满的主要根源。但也有其他促成因素，特别是在欧洲。
I was an avid supporter of the European Union from its inception. I regarded it as the embodiment of the idea of an open society: an association of democratic states willing to sacrifice part of their sovereignty for the common good. It started out at as a bold experiment in what Popper called “piecemeal social engineering.” The leaders set an attainable objective and a fixed timeline and mobilized the political will needed to meet it, knowing full well that each step would necessitate a further step forward. That is how the European Coal and Steel Community developed into the EU.
我从一开始就是欧洲联盟的狂热支持者。我认为它是一个开放社会的概念的实例：一个民主国家协会愿意牺牲部分主权的共同利益。它开始于一个大胆的实验，在波普尔所谓的“零碎的社会工程”。领导者设定了一个可实现的目标和固定的时间表，动员了满足它需要的政治意愿，知道每一步都需要向前迈进一步。这就是欧洲煤钢联盟如何发展成为欧盟。
But then something went woefully wrong. After the Crash of 2008, a voluntary association of equals was transformed into a relationship between creditors and debtors, where the debtors had difficulties in meeting their obligations and the creditors set the conditions the debtors had to obey. That relationship has been neither voluntary nor equal.
但是后来有些事情错了。在2008年的崩溃之后，一个自愿的平等协会被转化为债权人和债务人之间的关系，债务人在履行其义务方面遇到困难，债权人设定债务人不得不服从的条件。这种关系既不是自愿的，也不是平等的。
Germany emerged as the hegemonic power in Europe, but it failed to live up to the obligations that successful hegemons must fulfill, namely looking beyond their narrow self-interest to the interests of the people who depend on them. Compare the behavior of the US after WWII with Germany’s behavior after the Crash of 2008: the US launched the Marshall Plan, which led to the development of the EU; Germany imposed an austerity program that served its narrow self-interest.
德国在欧洲成为霸权主义，但它没有履行成功霸权必须履行的义务，即超越狭隘的自身利益，追求依赖他们的人民的利益。比较美国在二战后的行为与德国在2008年的崩溃后的行为：美国推出了马歇尔计划，导致欧盟的发展;德国实施了一项紧缩计划，为其狭隘的自身利益服务。
Before its reunification, Germany was the main force driving European integration: it was always willing to contribute a little bit extra to accommodate those putting up resistance. Remember Germany’s contribution to meeting Margaret Thatcher’s demands regarding the EU budget?
在回归之前，德国是推动欧洲一体化的主要力量：它总是愿意提供一点额外的，以适应那些抗拒。还记得德国对玛格丽特·撒切尔关于欧盟预算的要求所做的贡献吗？
But reuniting Germany on a 1:1 basis turned out to be very expensive. When Lehman Brothers collapsed, Germany did not feel rich enough to take on any additional obligations. When European finance ministers declared that no other systemically important financial institution would be allowed to fail, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, correctly reading the wishes of her electorate, declared that each member state should look after its own institutions. That was the start of a process of disintegration.
但是，按照1：1的比例重新统一德国是非常昂贵的。当雷曼兄弟倒闭时，德国没有足够的财富承担任何额外的义务。当欧洲财政部长宣布，没有其他具有系统重要性的金融机构将被允许失败，德国总理默克尔正确地阅读她的选民的愿望，宣布每个成员国应该照顾自己的机构。这是分裂过程的开始。
After the Crash of 2008, the EU and the eurozone became increasingly dysfunctional. Prevailing conditions became far removed from those prescribed by the Maastricht Treaty, but treaty change became progressively more difficult, and eventually impossible, because it couldn’t be ratified. The eurozone became the victim of antiquated laws; much-needed reforms could be enacted only by finding loopholes in them. That is how institutions became increasingly complicated, and electorates became alienated.
2008年的崩溃之后，欧盟和欧元区日益失去功能。现行条件远离“马斯特里赫特条约”所规定的条件，但条约变化逐渐变得更加困难，最终不可能，因为它无法批准。欧元区成为过时法律的受害者;只有通过找出漏洞，才能制定急需的改革。这就是机构变得越来越复杂，选民变得疏离。
The rise of anti-EU movements further impeded the functioning of institutions. And these forces of disintegration received a powerful boost in 2016, first from Brexit, then from the election of Trump in the US, and on December 4 from Italian voters’ rejection, by a wide margin, of constitutional reforms.
反欧盟运动的崛起进一步阻碍了机构的运作。这些解体力量在2016年得到了强大的推动，首先是Brexit，然后是美国特朗普的选举，12月4日，意大利选民大幅拒绝宪法改革。
Democracy is now in crisis. Even the US, the world’s leading democracy, elected a con artist and would-be dictator as its president. Although Trump has toned down his rhetoric since he was elected, he has changed neither his behavior nor his advisers. His cabinet comprises incompetent extremists and retired generals.
民主现在处于危机之中。即使是世界上领先的民主美国，也选择了一个骗子艺术家和将来的独裁者作为总统。虽然特朗普自他当选以来已经减轻了他的修辞，他改变了他的行为或他的顾问。他的内阁包括无能的极端分子和退休将军。
What lies ahead?
什么样的未来？
I am confident that democracy will prove resilient in the US. Its Constitution and institutions, including the fourth estate, are strong enough to resist the excesses of the executive branch, thus preventing a would-be dictator from becoming an actual one.
我相信民主将在美国证明是有弹性的。其宪法和机构，包括第四产业，足以抵制行政部门的过度行为，从而阻止了一个未来的独裁者成为一个实际的独裁者。
But the US will be preoccupied with internal struggles in the near future, and targeted minorities will suffer. The US will be unable to protect and promote democracy in the rest of the world. On the contrary, Trump will have greater affinity with dictators. That will allow some of them to reach an accommodation with the US, and others to carry on without interference. Trump will prefer making deals to defending principles. Unfortunately, that will be popular with his core constituency.
但美国将在不久的将来专注于内部斗争，目标少数民族将遭受痛苦。美国将无法保护和促进世界其他地区的民主。相反，特朗普将与独裁者有更大的亲和力。这将允许他们中的一些与美国达成一个住宿，而其他人在没有干扰的情况下继续。特朗普更愿意交易捍卫原则。不幸的是，这将是他的核心选区受欢迎。
I am particularly worried about the fate of the EU, which is in danger of coming under the influence of Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose concept of government is irreconcilable with that of open society. Putin is not a passive beneficiary of recent developments; he worked hard to bring them about. He recognized his regime’s weakness: it can exploit natural resources but cannot generate economic growth. He felt threatened by “color revolutions” in Georgia, Ukraine, and elsewhere. At first, he tried to control social media. Then, in a brilliant move, he exploited social media companies’ business model to spread misinformation and fake news, disorienting electorates and destabilizing democracies. That is how he helped Trump get elected.
我特别担心欧盟的命运，这是有可能受到俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔普京的影响，他的政府的概念与开放社会的不可调和。普京不是最近发展的被动受益者;他努力工作让他们。他认识到他的政权的弱点：它可以利用自然资源，但不能产生经济增长。他感到威胁在格鲁吉亚，乌克兰和其他地方的“颜色革命”。起初，他试图控制社交媒体。然后，在一个辉煌的举动，他利用社交媒体公司的商业模式传播错误信息和假新闻，迷失选民和破坏稳定的民主国家。这就是他如何帮助特朗普选举。
The same is likely to happen in the European election season in 2017 in the Netherlands, Germany, and Italy. In France, the two leading contenders are close to Putin and eager to appease him. If either wins, Putin’s dominance of Europe will become a fait accompli.
在2017年的欧洲选举季节，荷兰，德国和意大利也有可能出现这种情况。在法国，两个领先的竞争者接近普京，渴望安抚他。如果胜利，普京对欧洲的主导地位将成为既成事实。
I hope that Europe’s leaders and citizens alike will realize that this endangers their way of life and the values on which the EU was founded. The trouble is that the method Putin has used to destabilize democracy cannot be used to restore respect for facts and a balanced view of reality.
我希望欧洲领导人和公民都能意识到，这危及他们的生活方式和欧盟成立的价值观。麻烦的是，普京用来破坏民主稳定的方法不能用来恢复对事实的尊重和对现实的平衡观点。
With economic growth lagging and the refugee crisis out of control, the EU is on the verge of breakdown and is set to undergo an experience similar to that of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. Those who believe that the EU needs to be saved in order to be reinvented must do whatever they can to bring about a better outcome.
随着经济增长落后和难民危机失控，欧盟处于崩溃的边缘，并将经历类似于苏联在20世纪90年代初的经验。那些相信欧盟需要得到保存以便重新发明的人必须尽其所能来实现更好的结果。 |
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发表于 2017-1-19 12:32
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